I read a statement recently that suggested technological advancements had already rendered physical
cash redundant and bank branches irrelevant. I disagree with this statement -βregardless
of whether it is applied to just developed countries or the globe as a whole. A more precise
statement, in my opinion, would be: βTechnology has continued to make cash less
prevalent as a primary medium globally and consumers less reliant on the presence of
brick and mortar bank branches. These downward trends will likely continue, with
branches declining more steeply than cash usage.β
Returning to the original statement, there are arguments to be made both supporting and
challenging the move toward a cashless, branchless economy.
Supporting Arguments
Supporting Arguments:
β Cost Savings + Increased Government Revenues
β Minting is increasingly costly: Producing cash is increasingly expensive.
For example, recent U.S. policy changes highlight that minting a penny
costs about $0.0369 βfar more than its face value. With billions of pennies
produced annually, this inefficiency results in significant wasted resources.
β Increases in Government Revenue: The IMF has released many articles
and statements on the impact a digital economy has on government
revenues via electronic audit trails that help curb βshadow economiesβ and
tax evasion. India’s 2017 demonetization, though poorly executed, showed
that reducing physical cash circulation can lead to increased tax
compliance and revenue over time.
β Security and Efficiency
β Security and Recovery: Digital transactions βespecially those on the
blockchain systemβ provide more transparency and traceability. This
allows for easier recovery than tracking physical cash in most cases.
β Automation: Advances in AI and user-friendly online tools have given
banks the opportunity to automate routine functions, which reduces
consumersβ reliance on physical branches without sacrificing customer
service. These can translate into significant overhead savings, allowing
banks to lower fees for customers. This is apparent when comparing
traditional banks average account fees (TD Bank @ ~$16/month) to digital
banks (ie, Tangerine) that often charge between $0 and $6 per month.
Additionally, the ability to train and pivot certain branch employees to other
roles further boosts overall productivity for the bank and in the economy.
Challenging Arguments
β Cash Remains Prevalent
β Developed countries: Cash remains a popular payment method in places
like Germany and Austria βas per the ECBβ, particularly in areas lacking
digital infrastructure and reliable internet access.
β Less Developed Countries: In such countries, a lack of trust in their
financial institutions and governments drives their citizens to continue using
cash, hold other currencies, or buy foreign assets. For example, many Chinese nationals prefer holding and investing
their earnings abroad in more trustworthy and politically stable economies,
like Canada, USA, and in the EU.
β Questionable future of digital security and the βHuman Touchβ
β Security concerns: The long-term security of blockchain and other digital
security systems are questioned as quantum computing continues to make
strides. This past year Google claimed its new chip recently solved a
computation that would take a super computer ten septillion years βa
veryvery long time-β to complete in just 5 minutes. Unless quantum
resistant solutions can be developed, the future security of blockchain
systems may become obsolete.
β The βHuman Touchβ: Many older customers still rely on bank branches for
their financial needs. The Harvard Business Review has also reported on
studies which revealed that face-to-face interactions were crucial in building
a trusting and loyal consumer base. In particular, when advising on complex
financial products like mortgages, small business loans and investment
options.
In conclusion, while technological advancements will undeniably continue to transform
banking, the transition to cashless branchless economies is far from being absolute. In my
view, a shift toward a cashless global economy shows promise of improved efficiency and
cost savings. However, cash will likely remain relevant in many regions for the foreseeable
future. Bank branches on the other hand are likely to diminish significantly over time.
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